A look at Bahia vs Sao Paulo (Brazil Serie A, 29 October): the odds and what they imply, the form of both teams, their meetings so far and our prediction.
Bahia vs Sao Paulo: match details
- Competition: Brazil Serie A
- Date: Thursday 29 October 2026
- Kick-off: 07:30 GMT+7 (00:30 UTC)
- Venue: Arena Fonte Nova
- Weather: Light rain, 26℃～27℃
Key points
- Prices: Bahia favourites at 51%, the draw at 24%.
- Goals: about 2.8 expected (line 2.75); most likely score 1-1.
- Form (last 6): Bahia DLWLLW, Sao Paulo DWWLLW.
- Head to head (10): Bahia 2, draws 2, Sao Paulo 6.
Odds and what they imply
The bookmakers price a win for Bahia at 1.90, the draw at 3.60 and a win for Sao Paulo at 4.10. With the bookmaker margin taken out, those prices imply a 51% chance for Bahia, 24% for the draw and 25% for Sao Paulo.
On the Asian handicap, Bahia are -0.5 at 1.90 and Sao Paulo are +0.5 at 1.95. The line gives Sao Paulo a head start of 0.5 goals: the bigger the head start, the stronger the market thinks Bahia are.
The goals line is 2.75: Over 2.75 is 2.03 and Under 2.75 is 1.83. Together with the other prices that points to about 2.8 goals (Bahia 1.70, Sao Paulo 1.10), which makes Over 2.75 roughly a 53% chance.
| Market | Selection | Decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bahia | 1.90 |
| 1X2 | Draw | 3.60 |
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 4.10 |
| Asian handicap | Bahia -0.5 | 1.90 |
| Asian handicap | Sao Paulo +0.5 | 1.95 |
| Over / Under 2.75 | Over 2.75 | 2.03 |
| Over / Under 2.75 | Under 2.75 | 1.83 |
Recent form
Bahia
Over their last 6 matches Bahia have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 0.8 scored and 1.3 conceded per game (D L W L L W, newest first).
- 2026-10-25: away v Santos 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18: home v Flamengo 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11: home v Mirassol 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09: away v Palmeiras 1-0 (L)
- 2026-09-20: away v Atletico Paranaense 2-1 (L)
Sao Paulo
Over their last 6 matches Sao Paulo have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game (D W W L L W, newest first). Sao Paulo are unbeaten in their last 3.
- 2026-10-24: away v Mirassol 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18: home v Vasco da Gama 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11: home v Vitoria BA 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08: away v Cruzeiro 2-0 (L)
- 2026-10-02: home v Santos 1-2 (L)
Put together, the recent matches of the two sides averaged 2.1 goals per game, below the over/under line of 2.75.
Head to head
Their record against each other covers 10 matches: Bahia won 2, Sao Paulo won 6 and 2 matches ended level. On that record Sao Paulo have the better of it. They averaged 2.3 goals per game, and 5 of the 10 had three goals or more. The most recent meeting, on 2026-05-03, finished Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia.
- 2026-05-03: Sao Paulo 2-2 Bahia (BRA D1)
- 2025-10-26: Sao Paulo 2-0 Bahia (BRA D1)
- 2025-05-31: Bahia 2-1 Sao Paulo (BRA D1)
- 2024-11-06: Bahia 0-3 Sao Paulo (BRA D1)
- 2024-06-30: Sao Paulo 3-1 Bahia (BRA D1)
League standings
- Bahia: 7th, 50 points from 32 matches (13W 11D 8L, goals 45-40). At home they have 7 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats from 16 (23-17).
- Sao Paulo: 9th, 43 points from 32 matches (12W 7D 13L, goals 37-36). Away they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats from 16 (12-23).
Team news
- Bahia injuries: Leonardo da Silva Vieira
- Bahia suspensions: Victor Hugo Soares dos Santos
- Sao Paulo injuries: Domingos Duarte, Aurelio Buta, Jonathan Calleri, Daniel de Oliveira Sertanejo, Artur Victor Guimaraes, Nicolas Bosshardt
- Sao Paulo suspensions: Iago Amaral Borduchi
Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, so check them before you place a bet.
Bahia vs Sao Paulo prediction
Reading the prices, this is Bahia are favourites on the prices, at 51% against 24% for the draw and 25% for Sao Paulo. The goal model fitted to the prices makes 1-1 the single most likely scoreline (about 11%), with around 2.8 goals expected in total.
This prediction is calculated from market prices only. It does not include team news or line-ups, and a probability is not a promise: the less likely result still happens regularly.
Frequently asked questions
What time does Bahia vs Sao Paulo kick off?
The match kicks off at 07:30 GMT+7 (00:30 UTC) on Thursday 29 October 2026. Times on the site follow the time zone you pick in the header.
Who is the favourite?
Bahia are the favourites, with a 51% chance on the de-margined 1X2 prices.
How many goals are expected?
The over/under line is 2.75 and the prices point to about 2.8 goals.
Where can I follow Bahia vs Sao Paulo live?
The match page shows the live score, events, statistics, odds comparison and line-ups as they come in.
More: today's football tips and live scores.
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