A look at Midtjylland vs AFC Ajax (UEFA Conference League, 6 November): the odds and what they imply, the form of both teams, their meetings so far and our prediction.
Midtjylland vs AFC Ajax: match details
- Competition: UEFA Conference League
- Date: Friday 6 November 2026
- Kick-off: 00:45 GMT+7 (17:45 UTC)
- Venue: SAS Arena
Key points
- Prices: an even match on the 1X2 prices, the draw at 23%.
- Goals: about 3.3 expected (line 3.25); most likely score 1-1.
- Form (last 6): Midtjylland WWWLWD, AFC Ajax WWWWLD.
- Head to head (2): Midtjylland 0, draws 0, AFC Ajax 2.
Odds and what they imply
The bookmakers price a win for Midtjylland at 2.60, the draw at 3.70 and a win for AFC Ajax at 2.50. With the bookmaker margin taken out, those prices imply a 37% chance for Midtjylland, 23% for the draw and 40% for AFC Ajax.
On the Asian handicap, Midtjylland are 0 at 1.95 and AFC Ajax are 0 at 1.85. A level line means the market cannot separate the two sides on the handicap.
The goals line is 3.25: Over 3.25 is 1.98 and Under 3.25 is 1.83. Together with the other prices that points to about 3.3 goals (Midtjylland 1.62, AFC Ajax 1.67), which makes Over 3.25 roughly a 42% chance.
| Market | Selection | Decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Midtjylland | 2.60 |
| 1X2 | Draw | 3.70 |
| 1X2 | AFC Ajax | 2.50 |
| Asian handicap | Midtjylland 0 | 1.95 |
| Asian handicap | AFC Ajax 0 | 1.85 |
| Over / Under 3.25 | Over 3.25 | 1.98 |
| Over / Under 3.25 | Under 3.25 | 1.83 |
Head to head
Midtjylland and AFC Ajax have met 2 times in the matches we have on record: Midtjylland won 0, AFC Ajax won 2 and 0 matches ended level. On that record AFC Ajax have the better of it. They averaged 3.5 goals per game, and 2 of the 2 had three goals or more. The most recent meeting, on 2020-11-25, finished AFC Ajax 3-1 Midtjylland.
- 2020-11-25: AFC Ajax 3-1 Midtjylland (UEFA CL)
- 2020-11-03: Midtjylland 1-2 AFC Ajax (UEFA CL)
Recent form
Midtjylland
Midtjylland have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 6 matches (W W W L W D, newest first), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 goals per game. Midtjylland have won their last 3.
- 2026-11-01: away v Nordsjaelland 2-3 (W)
- 2026-10-29: home v Odense BK 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-25: home v Lyngby 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-22: home v Sint-Truidense 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-19: away v Viborg 1-2 (W)
AFC Ajax
AFC Ajax have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 6 matches (W W W W L D, newest first), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals per game. AFC Ajax have won their last 4.
- 2026-10-31: home v AZ Alkmaar 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-25: away v Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 (W)
- 2026-10-22: home v Atalanta 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18: away v Groningen 2-5 (W)
- 2026-10-15: away v Hajduk Split 2-1 (L)
Put together, the recent matches of the two sides averaged 3.1 goals per game, below the over/under line of 3.25.
League standings
- Midtjylland: 1st, 31 points from 13 matches (9W 4D 0L, goals 27-15). At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats from 6 (14-7).
- AFC Ajax: 2nd, 24 points from 11 matches (7W 3D 1L, goals 30-13). Away they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from 5 (18-4).
Group table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7-2 | 6 |
| 2 | Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8-4 | 6 |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6-2 | 6 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6-2 | 6 |
| 5 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5-1 | 6 |
| 6 | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5-1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sint-Truidense | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3-0 | 6 |
| 8 | Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3-1 | 6 |
| 9 | Brighton Hove Albion | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4-0 | 4 |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5-2 | 4 |
| 11 | CS Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4-2 | 4 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3-1 | 4 |
| 13 | AFC Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3-2 | 3 |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3-2 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3-3 | 3 |
| 16 | Sporting Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 3 |
| 17 | KAA Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 3 |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 3 |
| 19 | Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 2 |
| 20 | Egnatia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga FC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2-2 | 2 |
| 22 | Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4-5 | 1 |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 1 |
| 24 | Baumit Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 1 |
| 25 | Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1 |
| 26 | Aarhus AGF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 1 |
| 28 | Heart of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1 |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3-6 | 1 |
| 31 | FC Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 1 |
| 32 | Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-2 | 0 |
| 33 | KuPs | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2-6 | 0 |
| 34 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2-6 | 0 |
| 35 | Inter Club Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1-5 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Zalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1-8 | 0 |
Team news
- Midtjylland injuries: Gogorza, Martin Erlic, Magnus Jensen, Elias Rafn Olafsson, Jose Francisco Dos Santos Junior
- AFC Ajax injuries: Oliver Edvardsen, Caio Henrique Oliveira Silva, Simon Adingra, Anton Gaaei, Kasper Dolberg
- AFC Ajax suspensions: Yves Bissouma
Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, so check them before you place a bet.
Midtjylland vs AFC Ajax prediction
Reading the prices, this is a very even match: neither side is clearly ahead, and the draw is priced at 23%. The goal model fitted to the prices makes 1-1 the single most likely scoreline (about 10%), with around 3.3 goals expected in total.
This prediction is calculated from market prices only. It does not include team news or line-ups, and a probability is not a promise: the less likely result still happens regularly.
Frequently asked questions
What time does Midtjylland vs AFC Ajax kick off?
The match kicks off at 00:45 GMT+7 (17:45 UTC) on Friday 6 November 2026. Times on the site follow the time zone you pick in the header.
Who is the favourite?
Neither side: the prices make this an even match.
How many goals are expected?
The over/under line is 3.25 and the prices point to about 3.3 goals.
Where can I follow Midtjylland vs AFC Ajax live?
The match page shows the live score, events, statistics, odds comparison and line-ups as they come in.
More: today's football tips and live scores.
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