No tipster wins every bet, and a high win rate on its own proves little. Here is what accuracy means in football tips and what to look for instead.
The honest answer is "some are better than a coin flip, none are certain, and accuracy alone does not tell you much". A tip is an opinion about a match whose result is partly down to chance. What you can ask is whether a source is honest, whether its picks are priced well and whether the record is long enough to mean something.
Win rate depends on the price
A 70% win rate sounds excellent, but it can lose money. What matters is the win rate you need to break even at the price taken, which is 1 divided by the decimal price:
- At 2.00 you need to win more than 50% of bets.
- At 1.90 you need more than 52.6%.
- At 1.50 you need more than 66.7%.
- At 1.20 you need more than 83.3%.
So a tipster who backs short-priced favourites can win 75% of the time and still lose money, while one who backs 2.50 shots can win 45% and make a profit. Always read the win rate next to the average price and the return on a flat stake.
Football is hard to predict
Low scoring, draws, red cards and refereeing decisions make single matches noisy. The bookmaker's price also already contains a lot of information and a margin of a few percent, which a tipster has to overcome before any profit appears. A source that claims 90% or "guaranteed" wins should be treated with suspicion: either the sample is tiny or the results shown have been chosen.
How many tips do you need to judge?
A short run proves very little. Suppose a tipster's true win rate is 55%. Over 100 tips, luck alone can easily put their record anywhere between about 45% and 65%. Over 1,000 tips, the range narrows to roughly 52% to 58%. This is why a good week or month tells you almost nothing, and why a record only counts when it:
- covers hundreds of tips, not dozens;
- includes the losing ones;
- was time-stamped before kick-off, so nothing could be added or removed later;
- states the price taken, so the return can be checked.
What honest accuracy looks like
- A modest edge. A real edge in football is small. Think in terms of a few percent return, not doubling money.
- Losing runs. Even a profitable source has weeks of losses. Stake small enough to survive them (see bankroll management).
- Open grading. Every tip is graded by the same rules, from the final score, and cannot be edited later.
How to check any tip source
- Find the full list of past tips, not a hand-picked set of screenshots.
- Check win rate, average price and return on a flat stake together.
- Look at the number of tips behind each figure.
- See whether pending and lost tips are shown with the same prominence as the wins.
Our own record is on the results page, where every tip is listed with its time-stamp, price and grade, win or lose. We explain how the numbers are built in how our tips are made and graded, and how to read any record in how to judge a betting record. A tip is an opinion, not a promise: past results do not predict the future.
18+ only. Betting can be addictive: never stake money you cannot afford to lose. Read our responsible gambling page.