UEFA Champions League: AEK Athens v Real Madrid, Thursday 5 November at 00:45 GMT+7. We go through the prices, how both sides have been playing and how they have fared against each other.
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: match details
- Competition: UEFA Champions League
- Date: Thursday 5 November 2026
- Kick-off: 00:45 GMT+7 (17:45 UTC)
- Venue: Agia Sofia Stadium
Key points
- Prices: Real Madrid clear favourites at 79%, the draw at 13%.
- Goals: about 3.9 expected (line 3.75); most likely score 0-2.
- Form (last 6): AEK Athens LLWLLW, Real Madrid WWWWWW.
Odds and what they imply
The bookmakers price a win for AEK Athens at 11.00, the draw at 7.00 and a win for Real Madrid at 1.22. With the bookmaker margin taken out, those prices imply a 9% chance for AEK Athens, 13% for the draw and 79% for Real Madrid.
On the Asian handicap, AEK Athens are +2 at 1.93 and Real Madrid are -2 at 1.93. The line gives AEK Athens a head start of 2 goals: the bigger the head start, the stronger the market thinks Real Madrid are.
The goals line is 3.75: Over 3.75 is 1.98 and Under 3.75 is 1.88. Together with the other prices that points to about 3.9 goals (AEK Athens 0.92, Real Madrid 2.97), which makes Over 3.75 roughly a 55% chance.
| Market | Selection | Decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens | 11.00 |
| 1X2 | Draw | 7.00 |
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 1.22 |
| Asian handicap | AEK Athens +2 | 1.93 |
| Asian handicap | Real Madrid -2 | 1.93 |
| Over / Under 3.75 | Over 3.75 | 1.98 |
| Over / Under 3.75 | Under 3.75 | 1.88 |
Recent form
AEK Athens
AEK Athens's last 6 results read L L W L L W from the newest back: 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, and 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded per game. AEK Athens have lost their last 2.
- 2026-11-01: away v Panathinaikos 2-0 (L)
- 2026-10-28: away v PAOK Saloniki 3-1 (L)
- 2026-10-24: home v Panaitolikos Agrinio 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20: away v Manchester City 5-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14: away v FC Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 (L)
Real Madrid
Real Madrid have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 6 matches (W W W W W W, newest first), scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.0 goals per game. Real Madrid have won their last 6.
- 2026-11-01: away v Racing Santander 0-3 (W)
- 2026-10-25: away v FC Barcelona 1-2 (W)
- 2026-10-21: home v RB Leipzig 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18: home v Sevilla 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14: away v AS Roma 3-4 (W)
Put together, the recent matches of the two sides averaged 4.0 goals per game, above the over/under line of 3.75.
League standings
- AEK Athens: 4th, 17 points from 8 matches (5W 2D 1L, goals 21-5). At home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from 4 (17-0).
- Real Madrid: 3rd, 27 points from 11 matches (9W 0D 2L, goals 28-10). Away they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 6 (11-7).
Group table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain (PSG) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14-5 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12-3 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12-7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10-5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7-4 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7-2 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6-2 | 7 |
| 8 | FC Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11-6 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10-5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9-5 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9-6 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7-4 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5-4 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern Munchen | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10-5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8-5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-3 | 4 |
| 17 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8-8 | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5-6 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5-6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5-7 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6-9 | 3 |
| 24 | LASK Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6-9 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FK Baku | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3-6 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4-8 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3-7 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4-9 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3-8 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3-8 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahce | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-9 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4-7 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5-9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2-6 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4-10 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1-13 | 0 |
Team news
- AEK Athens injuries: Thomas Strakosha
- AEK Athens suspensions: Dereck Kutesa, Frantzdy Pierrot, Martin Georgiev, Christos Alexiou, Hakim Sahabo
- Real Madrid injuries: Ferland Mendy, Rodrygo Silva De Goes, Raul Asencio
Line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off, so check them before you place a bet.
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid prediction
Reading the prices, this is Real Madrid are clear favourites on the prices, at 79% against 13% for the draw and 9% for AEK Athens. The goal model fitted to the prices makes 0-2 the single most likely scoreline (about 9%), with around 3.9 goals expected in total.
This prediction is calculated from market prices only. It does not include team news or line-ups, and a probability is not a promise: the less likely result still happens regularly.
Frequently asked questions
What time does AEK Athens vs Real Madrid kick off?
The match kicks off at 00:45 GMT+7 (17:45 UTC) on Thursday 5 November 2026. Times on the site follow the time zone you pick in the header.
Who is the favourite?
Real Madrid are the clear favourites, with a 79% chance on the de-margined 1X2 prices.
How many goals are expected?
The over/under line is 3.75 and the prices point to about 3.9 goals.
Where can I follow AEK Athens vs Real Madrid live?
The match page shows the live score, events, statistics, odds comparison and line-ups as they come in.
More: today's football tips and live scores.
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